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The ArcticNet Network of Centres of Excellence (NCE) has brought together international law experts, marine geologists, biologists, sea ice physicists and other scientists to map the geological and political factors that could help Canada maintain its sovereignty over the Northwest Passage.

Exactly when will it be possible for ships to use the Northwest Passage to travel between Asia and Europe? Is the seabed suitable for resource development? What about the environmental risks?

Those are among the many questions government officials are asking as melting sea ice in the Northwest Passage begins to open a viable sea route that is 7,000 kilometres shorter between Europe and Asia than the Panama Canal.

Scientists predict many parts of the Arctic could be ice-free in summers by 2050. The timeline is much shorter for both the Northwest Passage and the Northeast Passage (between Norway and Alaska), which could see summertime open waters within five-to-10 years, if not sooner.

"What we're realizing is that any summer now – it could be the summer of 2006 or 2007 – we are going to get a challenge to Canadian sovereignty in the Northwest Passage," says Dr. Michael Byers, a Canada Research Chair in Global Politics & International Law at the University of British Columbia, and member of the ArcticNet research team. "As researchers, we feel a responsibility to take what information we've learned so far and to alert Canadian policy makers and the Canadian public that we have very little time to plan for that eventuality."

ArcticNet has rallied Canada's research community to provide answers that will help the federal government manage a coastal region that will become increasingly accessible, not only to international shipping, but also commercial fishing, resource development, tourism and potentially drug smuggling or illegal immigration. Dr. Byers is leading a project examining the international law and diplomacy of Canada's Arctic waters.

But he's not working in isolation. An article published earlier this year in Policy Options is co-authored by three ArcticNet researchers from very diverse disciplines: Dr. Byers (international law), Dr. Louis Fortier (biology, Université Laval) and Dr. David Barber (sea ice physicist, University of Manitoba). Their article details the ecological, economic and political impacts of polar climate change. Titled "The Incredible Shrinking Sea Ice", Dr. Byers describes it as "one of the most important policy articles that have been published so far" on the melting Canadian Arctic.

"It is essential that we take a multidisciplinary approach to Arctic research, and that's what the NCE program enables us to do," says Dr. Byers.

For example, it's not enough for governments to know that the Arctic may be ice free in summer by 2050. Policy makers specifically want to know when it will be possible for ships to navigate through the Northwest Passage, or resource companies to begin exploring there.

"That's where I can help," says Dr. Byers. "By collaborating with the scientists, I can tell them what research is most helpful to policy makers and lawyers.

The crucial issue concerns the western end of McClure Strait, which is the main water channel that connects the Passage to the western Arctic Ocean. For thousands of years, McClure Strait has been the main gateway for concrete-hard, thick, multi-year ice to enter the channels of the Passage. Research led by Dr. Barber has shown that in recent years the Arctic Ocean multi-year ice edge has retreated north and now lies at the northern limit of McClure Strait, potentially limiting the influx of threatening multi-year ice through the Passage in the near future.

"The melting single-year ice is irrelevant in summer," says Dr. Byers. "An ice-strengthened tanker can go through it like a hot knife through butter. It's the multi-year ice that matters."

Mapping below the Northwest Passage
Some answers also lie beneath the ice, on the seafloor of the Northwest Passage. Another group of ArcticNet researchers, led by Dr. John Hughes Clarke at the University of New Brunswick and Dr. Steve Blasco at the Geological Survey of Canada in Dartmouth NS, are using the Canadian research icebreaker CCGS Amundsen to map the seabed topography and the geological structure of the Northwest Passage.

High resolution, three-dimensional maps are needed to manage intercontinental ship traffic and resource exploration. Scientists want to determine if geological processes that have happened over hundreds or thousands of years are still active. This is particularly critical for the oil and gas industries which don't want to spend billions of dollars erecting a rig or installing a pipeline that will be damaged by moving ice in the winter.

"We already know from past mapping that the Northwest Passage is deep enough for shipping. Where there's still significant interest is in iceberg and ice ridge scouring, shallow gas and slumping of the sea floor," explains Dr. Hughes Clarke.

While the Northwest Passage may eventually be ice free in the summer, the winter ice forms pressure ridges that pierce deep into the water and carve the seabed. The ArcticNet team has already found evidence of heavy scouring by ice ridges and icebergs down to depths of at least 400 metres in the western Arctic and 850 metres in the eastern Arctic. Most of these deep water scours are likely relict features formed during glacial times, but the present day sea ice regime can still generate ice scours down to depths of 55 metres. The ongoing collection and analysis of ice scour information will help ArcticNet to contribute to regulatory needs and engineering considerations for seabed infrastructure development.

Partners Geological Survey of Canada (Atlantic) Kongsberg Maritime C&C Technologies Canadian Hydrographic Service (Central & Arctic Region)

Another concern is the presence of shallow gas in seabed sediment. "Very often there is gas in the upper 10 to 20 metres of sediments. You try putting a jack up (offshore drilling) rig on it, it's likely to collapse," says Dr. Hughes Clarke.

Another threat to jack up rigs is unconsolidated sediment (sediments not made into rock) which is prone to underwater landslides. ArcticNet researches are using acoustic imaging systems, attached to the hull of the Amundsen to locate where landslides have occurred. The next challenge is determining if the slides are 100,000 years old, 10,000 years old, or more recent.

To get more detailed pictures, the team will need to use an autonomous underwater vehicle (AUV) that can travel up to 100 kilometres under the ice.

"There's huge areas of the Passage which we can't see because the Amundsen can't get through the older ice," adds Dr. Clarke. "An AUV would allow us to map under the ice where the Amundsen can't go. It would provide enough resolution to answer a lot of these questions."

Dr. Byers fears that Canada is quickly running out of time if it wants to enforce its sovereignty over the Northwest Passage. He's encouraging the government to look at interim solutions that can be implemented quickly, including stationing a helicopter and soldiers at Resolute Bay to monitor, and if necessary board, vessels that refuse to comply with Canada's environmental laws or do not ask permission to use the Passage.

www.arcticnet.ulaval.ca